Saturday, 06 February 2010 23:52

What stock to buy? 

"What stock to buy?"

While I was walking into NTU-IIC room, a good friend of mine, Benjamin, asked me for stock recommendation. I hesitated at that instant. It was easy for me to answer him with some stock recommendations but that question had an underlying problem that I wished to address.

You see, everyone wants to be told what stock to buy. When I was younger, the books that I borrowed from the library have “stock selection” in the titles. It seems that the key to investment is stock selection. Even as I was explaining my investment philosophy to others, the question that I always received would be how to pick a good stock. Another instance was during my AB228A class. When someone asked me what stock to short in the Singapore exchange, I told him any stock. He was shocked, partly because he thought that I was fooling around with him. Yet, I was dead serious. 

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Wednesday, 03 February 2010 16:35

NANI なに?!

Nani is the first Japanese word that I actually learnt from watching animes. It simply means “what”.

This article shall do a short update and reflect on an article previously written on the Japanese market. In short, I was quite keen on the Japanese market back in 14 September 2009. The performance of Nikkei is currently close to breakeven on a six month basis since September 2009. Looking from this point of view, it is everything short of being outstanding. Returns are bad when you compare to markets like Dow.
 
Byron Wien, Vice Chairman of Blackstone Advisory Services is bullish on japanese stocks and said that while Japan is not in a boom, things are getting better:
 
“I would definitely start buying now. Everybody who could sell Japan has sold Japan. Everybody is on one side of the boat. My view is that we have a pretty good chance of having this one be the best of the major industrialized markets. It’s not a boom, but things are getting better.”

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Sunday, 31 January 2010 10:54

Economics - The Power to Investments? 

The rumor says, "Economics is too theoretical for investments."

While they have produced a stock of literature about making money, very few economists turn out to be highly successful investors. The failure of Long Term Capital, an U.S based hedge fund with Nobel Prize Laureates in economics on board, is a notorious example of how poorly economists can lose in investments.

However, despite of criticism and sarcasm of the practicality of economics in investment, ignoring economics is never a good idea for investors. Indeed, fundamental analysis is economics-based to some extent.

Further in this article, a very specific and operable investment idea based on economics theory or reasoning will be discussed so as to illustrate how to plug economics into the investments.

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Thursday, 28 January 2010 07:40

Ground Zero II

So, what is Ground Zero? 

No.1: It covers the blind spot of fundamental analysis thinking. Over here, the economy and the latest trend of automobile industry will probably throw the whole idea of Ford away.

No.2: It frees your mind and not restricts your thinking on stuffs like valuation. I don't think I can justify Ford at $12. I don't know if there is anything out there to justify it. The only thing that I know is that Ford has a story to tell.

To some extent, Ground Zero is really about simple economics. I guess this is why freakonomics becomes famous as it revamps the way economics is being used.
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Monday, 25 January 2010 10:47

Ground Zero

I want to teach.

All this while I have been trying to consolidate a strong concept for people to latch on and apply. I want to teach. Clearly, I disagree with people are doing with Financial Analysis and Technical Analysis. But my style of analysis is a bit fuzzy and airy too as it tends towards something like behavioral finance. My friend, Kenny, introduces the phrase "Ground Zero Approach" and I buy that. It is probably because ground zero represents a really weird way of thinking and seeks to understand the underlying main concern or relationship.

A more in-depth application will be similar to how Jim Rogers looks at things especially after he has travelled around the world on his bike.

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Monday, 25 January 2010 10:40

Market Commentary II

What an interesting week! 

China announced that they will be taking measures to cool down its economy.  This will be especially negative for commodities, especially metals, as they are used extensively in manufacturing. Goldman Sachs also downgraded some large mainland steelmakers as well as Aluminum Corp. of China. 

The U.S. also proposed curbs on the important banking industry.  President Obama said he wanted financial-sector legislation to include measures to stop banks engaging in proprietary trading and investing in hedge funds and private equity – which are important sources of income for banks.  These two major pieces of news caused a market crash late in the week. 

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Quote of the week

My approach works not by making valid predictions but by allowing me to correct false ones
- George Soros

Laughters

What a real Bank is?
A place that will lend you money if you can prove that you don't need it. (Bob Hope)

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