Friday, 22 January 2010 13:56

Market Commentary

Earnings season has begun in earnest, and this is a good time for us to see if this recovery has any legs in it.

Aluminium giant Alcoa kicked it off as usual, on Tuesday. It reported a quarterly loss of USD277million, and only made a profit of one cent a share excluding one-time items.

This was far below expectations, and the Dow Jones Industrials dropped 36.73 points (0.34 per cent) that day. This could be taken as a sign that the market has priced in an economic recovery that is stronger than reality. Still, Intel Corp had a stellar Q4, with USD2.3bn net earnings, which is up by an incredible 875% from last year.

Analysts from Credit Suisse, Raymond James and JMP Securities, among others, raised their price targets on the stock.

JMP Securities and Thinkequity raised their ratings to "outperform" and "buy" respectively.

However, its shares still fell more than three percent. I think that this shows the fragility of the market. Seriously bad news could bring the market down more than many expect. JPMorgan Chase, the second-largest US bank, experienced lower fixed- income trading revenue and was “cautious” about the outlook for consumer loan defaults.

This is not good for recovery hopes as consumers are the main drivers of the US economy. The shares dropped USD1.01, or 2.3 per cent, to $US43.68. However, it should still be noted that its earnings more than quadrupled compared with the fourth-quarter of 2008. Net revenue on a managed basis rose 32 per cent to $US25.2 billion from $US19.1 billion. Although earnings reports are a lagging indicator, it is still very important for the longevity of this rally that blue chips continue to meet expectations.

So let’s keep an eye on them going into the next week.

By Lieow Li Ping James, Research & Education Executive

~disclaimer:The information, statistical data and opinions contained herein are of the author’s own, and have been obtained from sources which he/she believes to be reliable, but it does not represent that they are accurate or complete, and they should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed and data provided herein are subject to change without notice. The securities mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all types of investors. ALL investments involve different degrees of risk. You should be aware of your risk tolerance level and financial situations at all times. Read any and all prospectuses carefully before making any investment decisions. As you know, a recommendation, which you are free to accept or reject, is not a guarantee for the successful performance of an investment and we are expressly prohibited from guaranteeing accounts against losses arising from market conditions. NTU-IIC and its members will not be held liable in any manner for any losses arising directly or indirectly from investment decisions undertaken based on the information/statistical data/opinions expressed.

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